GROWTH AND FORECASTING OF BADC AND NATIONAL BORO SEED PRODUCTION IN BANGLADESH: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY

Growth and Forecasting

Abstract

The study focused on the analysis of growth and forecasting of BADC and national Boro seed production in Bangladesh. Time series data were obtained from the published annual reports of BADC covering the period from 1990-91 to 2019-20 and national Boro seed production data were collected from seed wing, Ministry of Agriculture for the period of 2005-06 to 2019-20. It was found from the growth analysis that the production of BADC and national Boro seed have been registered positive and significant growth during the above mention period. The exponential growth model revealed that BADC and national Boro seed production have been increased by 11.04% and 5.12% per annum, respectively and their trend coefficients were positive. The prediction of BADC and national Boro seed production were made for the next ten years (2020-21 to 2029-30). ARIMA (0, 2, 1) and the exponential growth model showed that if the present growth rate is continued, BADC and national Boro seed production will be 80447.35 MT and 203512.26 MT, respectively in the year 2029-2030. The study recommended that the adequate supply of Boro seed to the farmers have improved their socioeconomic condition through the increased production of Boro rice in Bangladesh.